Top Rising And Falling Housing Markets In The U.S.
June 26, 2009
Local Market Monitor, released its latest Home Price Forecast, covering well over 300 US local markets. The forecast, which predicts local market behavior over the next 12 months, identifies markets where home prices will continue to drop as well as stable markets with opportunities for growth.
According to the forecast, among the largest US markets—identified as those with populations greater than 600,000—the 13 markets with the best expected performance in home price are:
- Baton Rouge, La.
- Buffalo-Niagara Falls
- Dallas-Plano-Irving
- Fort Worth-Arlington
- Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
- Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
- Oklahoma City
- Rochester, N.Y.
- San Antonio, TX
- Syracuse, N.Y.
- Tulsa
- Wichita, Kan.
These top markets, where home values are expected to remain level, are among those markets that did not have a big housing boom. Home prices in these areas are generally below the US average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact.
“These are markets that did not have a large boost in home prices over the last few years and therefore, even though the economy is doing poorly, no adjustment in prices has been necessary,” said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor. “Steady economic growth and price appreciation have helped these markets remain stable.”
The 11 largest markets with the worst expected performance in home price are:
- Bakersfield, Calif.
- Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.
- Fresno, Calif.
- Las Vegas-Paradise
- Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall
- Orlando-Kissimmee
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
- Stockton, Calif.
- West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla.
These markets, which are expected to have the largest declines in home values over the next year, are also among those that previously had the biggest price booms. This was attributed in large part to speculative buying, including the repercussions of inflated housing construction on the local job market and investor portfolios.
“We’re going to see prices fall below equilibrium in many of these markets,” said Winzer. “Prices are going to continue to decrease in some of these markets for several years before they really stabilize.”
Source: Local Market Monitor
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