Forbes America’s Best Long-Term Housing Bets
December 17, 2008
Behind the Numbers
Forbes.com evaluated the 40 largest Census-defined metro areas using the last 25 years of data from NAHB. We calculated volatility in supply (new construction) and demand (vacancy rates). Our measure tracks the degree of difference between how specific housing markets expand or contract in relation to the national market. If, for example, a city’s building rate grows by 5%, versus 1% nationally, there’s usually a similar pattern on the way down. That may be good for a flipper in the right place at the right time, but it’s not good for long-term investing. The top 10 cities on our list are those that grew in value, but avoided large swings in times of excess and stress.
No surprise, metro areas in California, like San Diego, Los Angeles and Sacramento–some of the nation’s most noteworthy boom-bust markets–performed poorly by this measure. Folks from all over the country move to California in boom periods, given its diversified industry, which includes everything from oil to entertainment. This is reflected in housing construction rates, which rank near the top in years when the stock market rises and jobs are plenty. Problem is, they take off when the party’s over, leaving mass unsold inventory, something home builders have yet to fully account for even though it’s a pattern dating to the 1980s.
10. Atlanta, Ga.
9. Portland, Ore.
8. Cincinnati, Ohio
7. Philadelphia, Pa.
6. St. Louis, Mo.
5. New York, N.Y.
4. Minneapolis, Minn.
3. San Antonio, Texas
2. Washington, D.C.
1. Seattle, Wash.
Read the entire article written by Matt Woolsey at Forbes.com
San Antonio continues to rank near the top whether it’s for home price appreciation, long term holds or job growth. If your an investor looking to enter a new market or you currently invest in the San Antonio market and need assistance finding properties that meet your needs, contact me today to speak with an investor friendly REALTOR.
Daniel Gaitan, REALTOR®
Trend Setter Realty
(210) 846-5282 Direct
(210) 855-8432 Fax
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