No. 2 Strongest Job Market: San Antonio

Who’s hiring: Information, Education & health services, Leisure & hospitality

Percent companies planning to hire in Q3: 20 percent
Population: 2,072,128 (+2 percent YOY)
Unemployment rate: 7.1 percent
Mean annual income: $37,970

The expansion of military medicine at Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio will bring 10,000 new jobs to the area, reported WOAI.com, and Toyota‘s expanded Tacoma production is expected to create more openings. In addition, government projects such as the San Antonio River Walk are expected to stimulate construction employment and create new businesses. According to the Conference Board, there were 33,400 online ads for jobs in the area in June, 20.9 percent more than in June 2009.

Source: Bloomberg Businessweek – America’s Strongest Job Markets

The “Top 100 Places to Live” list features several breakout categories such as the Top 10 Recovery Cities, Retirement Cities, ‘Earth Friendly’ Cities, Recreation Cities and Small Towns.

New for this year, the Top 10 Recovery Cities focused on areas poised for swift economic recovery. Many of these communities did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in other areas and have a more diverse economy.

To be considered for the list, a community is nominated at RelocateAmerica.com. From the thousands of submissions, the editorial team reviews the nominations and selects the Top 100 Places to Live, as well as the Top 10 for each smaller category, based on interviews with local leaders; feedback from residents; and economic, environmental, education, crime, employment and housing data for the past year.

“Given the tough economic times our nation is facing, homebuyers have re-evaluated their priorities and are looking to relocate to communities that offer plenty of perks, but minimal hassle and cost,” said Peter Meyers, Vice President, Research and Content Development, at RelocateAmerica.com. “While some cities are facing a road to recovery that could take years, others are poised for a quick rebound – and already have seen growth. We wanted to highlight those cities that are on the road back to economic health.”

The “Top 100 Places to Live” list is organized with the Top 10 communities ranked and the remaining 90 compiled alphabetically, to recognize all the communities on the list.

We wanted to find out where borrowers were doing well overall, not just where mortgage rates were lower, so for the 35 major housing markets that the FHFA tracks, we factored in the change–from January 2008 to January 2009, the most recent data available–in the percentage of homes in foreclosure.

We also ranked the year-over-year change in the percentage of homes that were 90 days or more delinquent–the so-called “shadow inventory” that is soon to end up clogging the market with foreclosures–for each corresponding Metropolitan Statistical Area. For that we used data from Lender Processing Services, a Jacksonville, Fla.-based mortgage industry service provider.

By ranking metros on those four measures and averaging those rankings, we arrived at a list of the top cities for borrowers.

Here are the 10 cities that Forbes ranks as the best for borrowers:
1. Kansas City, Mo.
2. Houston
3. Dallas
4. Virginia Beach, Va.
5. San Antonio, Texas
Average Effective Home Mortgage Rate: 5.12%
Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent, January 2009: 2.7%
Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent, January 2010: 3.9%
Foreclosures, January 2009: 0.8%
Foreclosures, January 2010: 1.3%
6. Boston
7. Pittsburgh
8. Denver
9. Seattle
10. Portland, Ore.

Source: Forbes.com, Francesca Levy

This edition of the Monitor examines indicators through the fourth quarter of 2009 (ending in December) in the areas of employment, unemployment, output, home prices, and foreclosure rates for the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. It finds that:

While the nation as a whole had almost no job growth during the last decade, 17 metropolitan areas had double-digit job growth and 34 lost jobs during that time. The 17 metropolitan areas with double-digit job growth from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2009 were all located in the South or West: Austin, Bakersfield, Boise, Cape Coral, Charleston, Houston, Lakeland, Las Vegas, McAllen, Ogden, Orlando, Phoenix, Provo, Raleigh, Riverside, San Antonio, and Washington.  Notably, several of these metropolitan areas suffered severe job losses during the Great Recession as a result of the collapse of their housing markets, but those losses made only a modest dent in the enormous job gains that occurred in these areas earlier in the decade.  The 34 metropolitan areas that lost jobs during the decade were located mostly in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.  They included not only metropolitan areas suffering from the continued loss of manufacturing jobs but also the high technology centers of San Jose and San Francisco.

Read the entire report at Brookings.edu

Analysts say cities that are most likely to leave the recession in the same or better condition than they started it are those where home prices didn’t fluctuate wildly, which spared them the devastating effects of foreclosure, lost jobs, and lost productivity.

If there is a lesson to be learned, experts say, it is that families looking for long-term economic stability should settle in locales with diverse employment and minimal shifts in housing values.

To identify these cities, Forbes magazine ranked the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas by employment rates, the conventional mortgage home price index, and the average days on the market for properties currently for sale.

The top cities on Forbes list were:

• Omaha/Council Bluffs, Neb.
• San Antonio, Texas
• Austin-Round Rock, Texas
• Pittsburgh, Pa.
  
• Harrisburg/Carlisle, Pa.
• Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas
• Rochester, N.Y.
• Houston, Texas
• Raleigh/Cary, N.C.
• Baton Rouge, La.

Lone Star Luck
In No. 2 city San Antonio, home to four military bases, and Austin, our third-ranked city and the state seat of government, municipal jobs supplement Texas’ robust energy sector. In Dallas (No. 6), it’s a thriving tech industry that buffers it from energy highs and lows. Although Houston No. 8 is invested mostly in oil, it has diversified its energy industry beyond oil rigs into refining and chemicals manufacturing.

What’s more, the state’s housing prices never ascended to the unsustainable levels the rest of the country hit at the peak of the housing bubble. Thus, it didn’t crash as hard. These factors have toughened the local economy against a recession that is inextricably tied to real estate.

“Texas didn’t have as big of a boom,” says James P. Gaines, research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “So we’re not having anywhere near the kind of bust.”

Full List: America’s Fastest-Recovering Cities

Read the entire article at Forbes.com written by Francesca Levy.

San Antonio, TX

Overall rank: 1

San Antonio, the second-largest city in Texas and the site of the battle of the Alamo, has one of the strongest job markets in the nation. Construction, which slowed during the recession, remains relatively robust, in part because of a new JW Marriott, a Caterpillar plant now under construction, as well as school, hospital, and military projects. Employment in San Antonio peaked in the second quarter of last year. Gross metropolitan product in the second quarter was down just 0.8% from the peak in the third quarter of 2008. Home prices grew 3.1% in the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. And the unemployment rate in June was 6.9%, up 2 points from a year earlier. (Please see below for the various criteria used by the Brookings Institution to determine the overall ranking.)

Job growth (since peak) rank: 3
Gross Metro Product (since peak) rank: 5
Unemployment change (year over year) rank: 4
Home price change (year over year) rank: 10

Click here to see the 40 strongest metros in the U.S.

“In Texas, it was a relatively mild recession,” says Eduardo Martinez, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “All our projections are for quite a bit of growth. In terms of job creation, more people are moving out there, and families are getting bigger. The fundamentals for Texas are a lot stronger than those of other peer large states.”

Behind the Numbers
To form our list, we looked at the country’s 40 largest metropolitan statistical areas and measured them for: current median home price and five-year projected home price from Moody’s Economy.com; median monthly housing expense from the Census Bureau; cost of living index from the Council for Community and Economic Research; median income for householders over age 65 from the Census Bureau; five-year job growth outlook from Moody’s Economy.com; and, since every retiree should get some sunshine in their golden years, we included sunny day statistics from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The figures here represent each city’s rank based on the measures above.

It’s true for recovery from a real estate bubble too. Overall, many economists expect the national economy to return to growth later in 2009, perhaps as soon as this summer. But that won’t be the case everywhere. While some cities are poised for a quick rebound, others face a slog to recovery that could take years.

Poised for swift recovery are many Texas cities, such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and McAllen. These areas did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in states like California, Nevada and Florida. The economy is diverse, with heavy growth coming from education and health care in recent years.

Read the entire article written by Joshua Zumbrun at Forbes.com

Best Cities Poised for Recovery

Austin-Round Rock, Texas

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.

Boulder, Colo.

Huntsville, Ala.

San Antonio, Texas

Mobile, Ala.

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va.

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

Unlike many lists that focus solely on the economy, Relocation.com took a wide-ranging look at factors that would appeal to someone looking for a fresh start: city ‘popularity’ based on consumer requests for moving quotes to move to that city; economic-growth prospects; home affordability; and the strength of a community as reflected by volunteerism rates.

Austin achieved the top spot with its high ranking on each of those criteria. Buoyed by a vibrant tech community and anchored by government institutions such as the University of Texas and the state capitol, Austin ranked in the top 10 for popularity, job growth and its volunteerism rate, and a higher ranking for home affordability.

It was followed by the Dallas/Fort Worth area, an economically diverse region that benefits from Texas’ energy riches – and also by the fact that its housing market didn’t get too inflated during the big run-up in housing prices. In the third spot is Charlotte, N.C., which has a more diverse economy, with strength in finance, and high rankings for popularity and volunteerism.

    The top 20 cities:

    1.  Austin, Texas                    10.  Las Vegas, Nev. (tie)
    2.  Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas         10.  Seattle, Wash. (tie)
    3.  Charlotte, N.C.                  13.  Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.(tie)
    4.  Denver, Colo.                    13.  Raleigh-Durham, N.C.(tie)
    5.  Columbus, Ohio (tie)             15.  San Antonio, Texas
    5.  Indianapolis, Ind. (tie)         16.  Portland, Ore.
    7.  Washington, D.C.-Baltimore, Md.  17.  Cincinnati, Ohio
    8.  Atlanta, Ga.                     18.  Pittsburgh, Pa.
    9.  Oklahoma City, Okla.             19.  Memphis, Tenn.
    10. Houston, Texas (tie)             20.  Cleveland, Ohio

“Studies have shown that many people don’t like where they live. At the same time, a lot of people are looking for work, whether they’re unemployed now or fearing layoffs. It’s a scary time, but for some it might be a good time to think about starting over. So, we identified some good locations to consider for people looking to start with a clean slate in a new community,” says Sharon Asher, chairman and founder, Relocation.com.

List Criteria

Relocation.com looked at communities with more than 1 million people. Although many midsized cities are flourishing, they tend to be tied to a single industry or a government agency, while larger cities generally have more diverse economic bases. The list was determined by four criteria, each of which was weighted equally.

Popular cities: Relocation.com’s moving request data was used to determine the cities that people want to move to, based on the per-capita number of quotes for moving services requested to particular communities in 2008 and year-to-date 2009.

Although an influx of people can put pressure on local resources, these newcomers also bring new ideas, skills and outlooks that can spark economic development and strengthen communal ties. A ‘churn’ of newcomers is vital for a community.

Economic prospects: Forbes.com’s list of the Best Places for Businesses and Careers was used to determine the cities with the greatest job growth prospects over the next three years. The list was published in March 2009.

Affordable housing: Figures from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index were used to determine the best housing opportunities. This report looks at more than 200 of the country’s largest metropolitan areas and determines the percentage of homes sold in the latest quarter that were affordable to the median average family in that area – the higher the percentage, the more affordable housing is to the greatest number of people.

High volunteerism rates: The current recession is radically changing the economic and social landscape. With fewer resources at their disposable, many people will depend more on their neighbors for their economic and social livelihoods.

Relocation.com looked at volunteerism rates from the Corporation of National Community and Service, an independent federal agency whose board of directors and CEO are appointed by the president. Communities with high volunteerism rates tend to be stronger with lower crime rates, and greater volunteerism rates can mean less need for government spending on providing those services. It is healthier too: people who volunteer have lower mortality rates and lower rates of depression than the general population, according to the Corporation.

Behind the Numbers
To determine which U.S. cities are the best bargains, Forbes looked at the country’s 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan divisions–geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget used by federal agencies in collecting, tabulating and publishing federal statistics.

We assigned points to metro regions across four data sets: Average salary for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher, from PayScale.com; annual unemployment statistics, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; cost of living, from Moody’s Economy.com; and the Housing Opportunity Index, from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, which measures the amount of homes sold in a given area that would be affordable to a family earning the local median income based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria.

Lone Star Constellation
While the capital of Texas graced the top of our list, the rest of the state’s large cities performed admirably too. All five of Texas’ biggest burgs–Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Ft. Worth–were among the top 10 best bargains. Not a single city in Texas ended up on our list of most overpriced places.

Part of the reason is that Texas offers some of the best incentives for entrepreneurs looking to start or move a business, according to Eduardo Martinez, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com. Like Phoenix, Texan metros “have picked up a lot of California companies that have left because of high operating costs,” he says.

15. Detroit, Mich.

14. Kansas City, Mo.

11. Cambridge, Mass. (tie)

11. Denver, Colo. (tie)

11. Nashville, Tenn. (tie)

10. San Antonio, Texas

9. Houston, Texas

8. Dallas, Texas

7. Columbus, Ohio

5. Indianapolis, Ind. (tie)

5. Cincinnati, Ohio (tie)

4. Fort Worth, Texas

3. Washington, D.C.

2. Phoenix, Ariz.

1. Austin, Texas